Tuesday, October 28, 2008

The Percentage You're Paying Is Too High Priced

120 per cent. Read that carefully. It really does say one hundred and twenty per cent. What does it denote? The increase in unemployment in the Balearics in the last twelve months. And there isn't even - yet - a technical recession. The whole of Spain may be suffering, but not on the scale of the Balearics. The increase dwarfs the second highest, that of 79% in Murcia. The anticipated number out of work during the coming winter has had to be revised upwards; it is likely to exceed 100,000. What is the actual working population in the Balearics? It's around the 550,000 mark. Almost a fifth will not be working this winter. The most depressing aspect of the 120%, however, is that it has been registered in the third quarter of the year, when, theoretically, employment should be at its highest. There were over 55,000 unemployed during the third quarter. Last year, there were 25,000 - that's the 120%.

The absurd suggestion, made some weeks ago, that tourism (in winter!) would help to offset the job losses in construction makes one wonder about the sanity of some local politicians. At least others are saying that now would not be a good time to be causing political instability by calling elections in response to the latest round of scandals. There is some sanity then. At such economic times as these, the last thing that is needed is an election. The question is though, how do the politicians dig the Balearics out of its unemployment hole? Or perhaps the question should be - can they?

One answer lies in heavy doses of public spending, for which, almost certainly, one should read construction. The Balearic Government has already committed funds to firms that have faced indebtedness as a result of the construction collapse. They may have helped them survive, short term, but where is the pipeline of projects that is going to provide them with business? Take just one example - the museum redevelopment of Alcúdia's old power station. The project first came to the table in May last year. They have yet to work out how exactly it is to be financed.

Throwing money at infrastructure projects is one thing, but not everyone is capable of construction work, even were there the jobs to go around. White-collar public service jobs might also be a solution, but these would probably simply only add to a top-heavy bureaucracy; the reverse - fewer jobs - is the requirement in some instances. The town halls are all strapped for cash; they would need to go begging to the government and ultimately to Madrid for the capital to engage in more local works. There again, public spending, and therefore public borrowing, is not necessarily the ideal approach, especially if it leads to projects that might otherwise be financed under more benign, later economic circumstances, and what would be the time-scales of such projects. There is something to be said, instead, for tax cuts and for reductions in onerous social-security levies. The latter is highly unlikely, especially at present, but the size of contributions is a distinct obstacle to employment creation.

Maybe there is something in Keynes' notion of employing the unemployed to dig holes which they then fill in. To have witnessed some of the road and street works in Puerto Pollensa these past few winters, one would think this has already been the policy. But how does a local authority like Pollensa, with its budget shortfall of approaching a million euros, get to fund meaningful projects? And indeed what would they be? Given the hash the town hall makes of certain things, one couldn't be confident of them getting them right in any event. Maybe it wouldn't matter though: dig holes, and then fill them in.

The unemployment situation is being faced up to by Mallorca's bodies for combatting racism. There is a recognition that foreigners could be the target for social discontent. More than half the number of foreigners in the Balearics come from outside the European Union, but even some from within face discrimination of different forms. There is to be a campaign against racist attitudes, one that, in the words of the councillor for immigration, emphasises that "an intolerant society is a society with fear". It is a campaign that might well be needed.


QUIZ
Yesterday's title - The Four Seasons (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4QuZQylrdfA). Today's title - from the title track of an album by a British band of the late '60s and early '70s: one that was more appreciated in the US. Think lots of vehicles.

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